EPA
also: expected points added · EPA per play
How much a single play changed the number of points its team could expect to score next — the closest thing football has to a universal currency.
EPA = expected points after the play − expected points before itEvery game state — down, distance, field position, time, score — carries an expected points value, learned from how drives from that state have historically ended. A play's EPA is the change in that value. A 4-yard gain on 3rd-and-8 is negative; the same 4 yards on 3rd-and-3 is strongly positive.
That is why EPA replaced yards. Yards treat all yards alike, and football does not: the down marker decides what a yard is worth. EPA prices the situation first and the yardage second.
It is additive, so it aggregates cleanly — per play, per drive, per game, per season, by player, by personnel grouping. Most modern football analysis is EPA sliced some way.
Judging a quarterback on raw EPA without splitting garbage time. Late-game EPA against a prevent defence is real yardage and near-meaningless value, and it moves season totals a long way.
Where to get it
Related
EPA from the API
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