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CPOE

also: completion percentage over expected

How often a passer completes throws compared with what the throw itself justified.

Formula
CPOE = actual completion % − expected completion %

Each throw carries an expected completion probability given depth, direction, pressure and the situation. CPOE is the gap between what a quarterback completed and what those throws should have yielded.

It separates the checkdown merchant from the passer beating tight windows. Raw completion percentage rewards throwing short; CPOE does not.

CPOE combined with EPA per dropback is about as good as public quarterback evaluation gets without charting every snap yourself.

The common mistake

Reading it as pure quarterback skill. Drops count against it and receiver separation feeds it, so it carries the supporting cast along with the passer.

Where to get it

Related

CPOE from the API

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