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Success rate

also: SR · successful play rate

The share of plays that gained enough to keep the drive on schedule. EPA's blunt, stable cousin.

Formula
Success = 40% of yards to go on 1st, 60% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd or 4th

A binary version of EPA: did this play keep the offence ahead of the chains or not. It throws away magnitude, which is the point — one 70-yard touchdown cannot drag the number the way it drags EPA.

Because it is binary it stabilises far faster than EPA. Over a handful of games, success rate tells you more about an offence than EPA per play does.

Read them together. High EPA with low success rate is a boom-bust offence living on explosives; high success rate with low EPA is an offence that moves the chains and stalls in the red zone.

The common mistake

Using it alone to rank offences. It is deliberately blind to explosive plays, which are a real and repeatable way to score.

Where to get it

Related

Success rate from the API

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