Win probability
also: WP · win percentage
The chance a team wins from the state the game is in right now.
WP = P(win | score, time remaining, down, distance, field position, possession)Built from score, time, down, distance, field position and possession, fitted on the outcomes of historical games in the same state. Every play row carries the figure before the snap, so a game can be replayed as a line rather than a box score.
It is the number that makes a coaching decision arguable. Going for it on fourth and two is not a question about expected yards; it is a question about which branch leaves a higher chance of winning, and win probability is the only currency that answers it directly.
How much one play moved it is a separate metric with its own page — see win probability added.
Reading a mid-game figure as a prediction of quality. A team can be at 85% because it is up two scores with four minutes left and still be the worse side; win probability describes the situation, not the teams.
Where to get it
Related
Win probability from the API
500 free credits on signup, no card. REST or MCP.
Get a free key