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Bettors and modellers

Closing lines back to 1999, with the plays behind them

Every game carries a closing spread, and the play-by-play underneath is already priced in EPA and win probability.

Backtesting a football model needs the line the market actually closed at, not a line scraped last Tuesday. Most free sources give you one or the other.

What to build

Backtest against the closing spread

Pull a season of games with closing lines attached, run your projections against them, and measure closing line value rather than win rate.

Situational edges

EPA and success rate by down, field position and personnel — where a team is genuinely different from its season average.

Injury and depth-chart context

Practice and game status by week, with depth charts and snap counts, so a line move can be tied to a body rather than guessed at.

What it will not do

  • Per-book odds coverage is thinner than the consensus closing line, which is on every game.
  • No live in-play pricing.

Worth reading first

Start with 500 free credits

No card. REST or MCP.